2017’s #1 Overall Pick

Recently I read an article on CBSSports.com written by Scott White (To read the article you can click here). It made me a bit frustrated. Not frustrated with White himself, since he says Mike Trout would be his top pick in 2017, but about the fact that this even has to be discussed.

I get as fantasy baseball owners we are always looking for the next big thing and we love chasing the hot hand, but when someone like Trout comes along and consistently performs at the level he does there is no reason to ever stray from him. Many owners did this with Bryce Harper this year after one great season and paid the price for it. Next season owners will be doing it again with Mookie Betts or Jose Altuve, but the reality is neither has done it as long or as good as Mike Trout.

My advice, trust the track record because the last thing you can afford to do is waste the first overall pick.

How to Discount Players Based on Injuries

With the recent injury to Giancarlo Stanton I began to ask myself how I would value him in next year’s fantasy baseball draft? This lead to me thinking about how to value injured players in general when they are coming off of injuries.

Some of the players that come to mind are Clayton Kershaw, Michael Brantley and Matt Harvey. All of these players are coming off of injuries that have caused them to miss significant time in the 2016 season. So, when it comes down to draft day in 2017 where do we pick these players?

Every player is different. Obvious right? It is so true though when it comes to how you judge a player based on injuries. Kershaw for example has missed time because of his back over the past two seasons, but even with that there is no one who would not take him as the number one pitcher off the board and there is no way he should go past the second round.

Stanton and Harvey, however, are both very different. Both of them have a history of injuries and have missed significant time because of those injuries. To properly rate these players you have to take their history in to consideration and in the case of Stanton I would likely drop him from a first round pick to a third or fourth round pick because of his history.

Even though history is not a perfect forecaster of the future when I comes to predicting if a player is likely to miss playing time due to an injury the best resource we have is to look at their past history. Keep that in mind when you sit down and draft in 2017.