2017 Catcher Rankings

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By 3.26 on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)%5D, via Wikimedia Commons
1. Jonathan Lucroy
2. Gary Sanchez
3. Buster Posey
4. Yasmani Grandal
5. Wilson Contreras
6. Welington Castillo
7. J.T. Realmuto
8. Salvador Perez
9. Evan Gattis
10. Russell Martin
11. Brian McCann
12. Kyle Schwarber
13. Stephen Vogt
14. Yadier Molina
15. Matt Wieters
16. Cameron Rupp
17. Tom Murphy
18. Travis D’Arnaud
19. Derek Norris
20. Francisco Cervelli

Bust – Buster Posey
Buster Posey is consistently over drafted strictly off of reputation and the fact that he is eligible at catcher and plays every day. Don’t get caught in this trap. Posey is starting this season as a 29 year old catcher who has been showing declining power, only 14 home runs and a slugging percentage of .434, both of which are his lowest marks since 2011. He plays in one of the least hitter friendly parks in the majors. In addition to low power numbers Buster’s batting average is has been on the decline for multiples years. Yes, he is a good player, but not worth taking him where he will end up being drafted as he will not return that value.

Breakout – Welington Castillo
I know you’re thinking, what Welington Castillo? Yes, Welington Castillo. With the move from Arizona to Baltimore Castillo will remain in a very hitter friendly park and add on his schedule the American League East’s home stadiums that include New York and Toronto, both launch sites for baseballs. He no longer will have to hit in San Francisco or San Diego or face Clayton Kershaw. Hitting around him is taking a step forward allowing him to see more quality pitching and maybe best of all the pitching in the AL East is at best leaguer average. Look for big things from Castillo and feel free to wait on him as he won’t be a catcher taken early in drafts.

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Two Start Pitchers to Avoid

Michael Pineda delivers a pitch in the first inning.
By Arturo Pardavila III on Flickr [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)%5D, via Wikimedia Commons
Rather than try and predict which potential two-start pitchers you should try and use this week we thought we would simply tell you some of the fringe pitchers to avoid.

Robert Gsellman, SP Mets

Many will look at the match-ups Robert Gsellman has this week, Atlanta and Philadelphia, and think they should add him. That is a trap. Thought Gsellman does look like he has easy match-ups he has struggled against both those teams already this season. In his previous starts again the Braves and Phillies he went 11.0 innings and gave up 8 earned runs. Do not fall for the match-ups, avoid him this week.

Matt Boyd, SP Tigers

Matt Boyd was supposed to be a two-start pitcher last week and that didn’t happen, not a surprise for this time of year. Now Boyd is scheduled for two starts this week, facing the Twins and Royals. Because I am doubtful that he will actually make two starts I would advise you stay away. A one start Matt Boyd is not worth it if you have a better option available. Especially since Boyd faced Minnesota his last time out and lasted 3.7 innings and gave up 7 earned runs. Even if he had two starts this week he is likely in for rough outings as he hasn’t fared well against Kansas City either this season.

Other two-start pitchers you should avoid; Kevin Gausman, Michael Pineda, Joe Musgrove, Edison Volquez and Matt Garza.

Hitters to Avoid in 2017

Yesterday we highlighted pitchers that, due mostly to injury concerns, we will be avoiding in 2017 drafts. Today we thought it only fair to pay attention to the other side of the game and name some hitters we won’t be drafting.

Yasiel Puig, OF Dodgers

There is a big hole in the outfield when it comes to quality fantasy players, one of the slimmest crop of usable players in a while. Even with that we will be avoiding Yasiel Puig. It is highly probably Puig will be traded in the offseason and a lot of people believe it will be to the Brewers, we agree with that by the way. Even if that happens and opens up his playing time we still believe he is too risky. He has not shown that he can be consistent nor stay healthy. He won’t go high in drafts likely, but still we want to stay away.

Jay Bruce, OF Mets

Again, we know there are not a lot of great outfielders to choose from, but Jay Bruce is not someone you want next year. Since his trade to the New York Mets Bruce had been horrible. In 36 games he has a slash line of .192/.271/.315, with only 4 home runs. Question has been asked is he trying to prove too much to his new team or is this simply regression to the mean for him. We believe it is that latter. Last time Bruce his over .250 was in 2013 and it is clear to us that his hot season in Cincinnati was not the new norm for him, but just an extended hot streak.

Jose Bautista, OF Blue Jays

Maybe we should have tried a little harder to find players outside of the outfield, but it is just where we found players we don’t want for 2017. Jose Bautista has his lowest batting average since 2005 when he hit .143. Next year he will be 36 years old and has progressively been showing signs of aging with declining performance and increasing time injured. He is still valued by most fantasy players as a high end option, but is not returning what you have to pay for him. He is likely going to finish the regular season with his first sub-25 home run season since 2009. If he isn’t knocking the ball out of the park, isn’t hitting for a good average and isn’t driving in 100+ runs then he just doesn’t provide enough value for where he will be drafted.

Daniel Murphy, 2B Nationals

Finally, a non-outfielder and probably a pick that has you scratching your head. Daniel Murphy has been a major break out star in his age 31 season and has given owners plenty to celebrate. However, is it really something he can do again next year? We predict that many fantasy owners will be drafting Murphy in the first three rounds and he will not return that value. It is very unlikely that at 32 Murphy will be able to repeat his 2016 season. He has made it known that he made changes to his batting stance to increase his power production, but even if that sticks next year he will more than likely fall off in batting average as he has his highest BABIP since 2008 at .350 that is not going to be repeated. He will be a very useful fantasy player in 2017, but not worth where you will have to draft him.

There are without a doubt a lot more players that will be on our do not draft list for 2017 like Miguel Sano, Joe Mauer, Mark Trumbo and Billy Hamilton, but we didn’t have room to talk about them all here. Be on the lookout during the offseason however for more on why these players won’t be on any of our fantasy baseball teams in 2017.

Pitchers to Avoid in 2017

As we get ready to say goodbye to the 2016 fantasy baseball season, some already have, I begin to look at the 2017 season. With that I thought I would write a quick post on some starting pitchers that as of right now I will be avoiding in 2017. Below are my four pitchers to stay away from, unless they remedy their injury concerns during the offseason.

Danny Salazar, SP Indians

Danny Salazar once again is being shut down due to an arm injury. Based on my recollection he has been shut down this season for issues related to his shoulder, elbow and forearm in 2016. All areas that make me think of Tommy John since they all can be related to a serious elbow injury.

Gerrit Cole, SP Pirates

Another pitcher who has been shut down for the season is Gerrit Cole. Cole started the year off injured, was shut down not long ago because of an arm issue and that issue seems to have come back. Though his early season problems were not arm related I am steering clear of Cole next year unless something happens in the offseason to change my mind.

Lance McCullers, SP Astros

Like Cole, McCullers started the season hurt. He got off to a very late start in 2016 because of that injury and there were many who were scared his big jump in workload in 2015 would lead to issues in 2016. They may have been right as he has been on the DL twice this year and may or may not finish the regular season on the DL. His issues in 2016 have consisted of shoulder and elbow pains, not a good thing for a starting pitcher and a player that should be avoided in 2017.

Clayton Kershaw, SP Dodgers

This is probably the most controversial name on my list. There is no doubting that Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball, but to me he has a huge red flag. In 2014 Kershaw spent time on the DL because of a back issue, 2015 a hip issue sidelined him and this season the back is back. Yes, he is pitching again in 2016, but unless he does something to get his back issue taken care of in the offseason I won’t be drafting him. Now, that is not because I think he will for sure be hurt. It is because the price you will have to pay for him is too high based on the ongoing injury concern.

Two Start Pitchers for Week 24

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With the 2016 season coming to a close soon and rosters expanded finding quality two-start pitchers who are available is becoming more and more difficult. Especially when you take in to account that this time of year managers are known to throw in a random starter at any point during a week that could push a pitcher out of a two start week. Below are out picks for two-start pitchers the week of September 12th.

Miguel Gonzalez, SP White Sox (8% Owned)

Former Orioles starting pitcher Miguel Gonzalez is lined up to face Cleveland and Kansas City in the upcoming week. And though the Indians are a touch match-up the Royals have been up and down offensively. He may have a hard time getting a win facing Carlos Carrasco and Danny Duffy, but he should give you good enough ratios and innings to have a shot at the win in both games. Over his last 9 starts Gonzalez has pitched extremely well with a 2.38 ERA and 1.057 WHIP. One of his best starts in that span was his last one against the Tigers where he tamed them to the tune of 6.3 innings, 6 hits, 0 walks and 0 earned runs. If he can hold down that offense, then he may have a shot to keep Cleveland’s power bats at bay as well.

Matt Boyd, SP Tigers (50% Owned)

Overshadowed in the Detroit Tigers rotation by Michael Fulmer and Justin Verlander has been the well performing Matt Boyd. Acquired from the Blue Jays Boyd took a while to get going this season, but is now firing on all cylinders. He will face a lack luster hitting Twins lineup to start the week and then go to Cleveland to face the always dangerous Indians. Both teams he faced before in 2016 and over three combined games against these two rivals he has pitched 16.7 innings and given up 10 hits, 5 walks and only 3 earned runs (all came in one game against Minnesota). Boyd’s season totals are not overly impressive but since July 9th he has had a n outstanding 2.56 ERA with a 1.154 WHIP. If he can keep his walks down, like he has so far against these two advisories this season, then he has a chance to put up good numbers in a week where two start pitchers are not easy to find.

There are some other, young, desirable options for two start pitcher in the coming week like Jose De Leon and Lucas Giolito but with the way schedules fall and the time of the year it may be hard to trust that both of these pitchers get their two starts.