Last year at this time there were debates throughout fantasy baseball about who should be the number one overall pick in drafts. Many analysts were hell bent on anointing Bryce Harper to that first overall pick over Mike Trout. We saw what happened with Harper last season after his “breakout” season in 2015. Now the question is, who in the top ten will be the Harper of 2017?
According to FantasyPros.com the consensus top ten books look like this:
1. Mike Trout
2. Mookie Betts
3. Jose Altuve
4. Kris Bryant
5. Nolan Arenado
6. Paul Goldschmidt
7. Clayton Kershaw
8. Manny Machado
9. Josh Donaldson
10. Bryce Harper
For us one time on this list sticks out more than any other as a possible bust. Can you guess who? Nope your wrong, or maybe you were right, its Mookie Betts.
In his first two seasons Mookie averaged 12 home runs, 48 RBIs, 63 runs and a slash line of .291/.348/.471 over 197 games, yes a very small sample size. In 2016 Betts is more home runs than in the previous two years combined with 31, had 113 RBIs, 122 runs and a triple slash of .318/.363/.534 over 158 games, and even smaller sample size. So, which small sample size are we supposed to believe?
For me, if I am have the second overall pick in a draft I want to make sure I am getting a top player that has consistently performed that way and Betts is not that guy. Do I believe that he could be the number two overall player come end of the season, absolutely, but I am not willing to bet on it. I don’t want to be the guy that last year took Harper number one overall and kick myself for trusting one breakout season. Betts is deserving of a top ten pick, but not a top five.
My top five picks are easy, Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, Josh Donaldson, Clayton Kershaw and Nolan Arenado. Pick Mookie Betts at your own risk and buyer beware.
Disagree? Great, let us hear about it and why.